<aside> <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1559941205605089280/-8hTx1Hm_400x400.jpg" alt="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1559941205605089280/-8hTx1Hm_400x400.jpg" width="40px" /> NFT Doctor @NFT_Doctor33: How to evaluate mints systematically with science.

A short thread.

</aside>

<aside> <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" alt="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" width="40px" /> NFT Doctor @NFT_Doctor33: I have been using multiple regression model (MRM) methods to estimate floor price after the mint of new projects.

Before diving directly into the mints, let's start with MRM 101 and then discuss how we can apply MRM methods to NFTs for success!

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<aside> <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" alt="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" width="40px" /> NFT Doctor @NFT_Doctor33: MRM's are loved by medical scientists.

We use these models to estimate the effects of possible risk factors (smoking) on unwanted outcomes (cancer).

In this formula down below cancer (outcome) would be the dependent variable and smoking or alcohol would exanatory variables.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FanygcTXEAAwuzk.png

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<aside> <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" alt="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" width="40px" /> NFT Doctor @NFT_Doctor33: So based on the formula above if we have enough observations (data) we can estimate the risk of any given individual's risk of developing cancer (compared to the general population) based on the expanatory variables such as smoking, alcohol consumption gender and etc.

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<aside> <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" alt="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" width="40px" /> NFT Doctor @NFT_Doctor33: The good thing is, that the same rules of statistics apply to almost every field including NFTs!

So how can we look at NFTs with the mentioned formula?

Easy let's determine our variables!

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<aside> <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" alt="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" width="40px" /> NFT Doctor @NFT_Doctor33: Dependent variable == Floor price right after mint divided by mint price.

If our dependent variable >= 1.1 (not 1 because we need to account for royalties) we can say with some certainty that this mint will be flippable for profit.

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<aside> <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" alt="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" width="40px" /> NFT Doctor @NFT_Doctor33: Our Expanatory variables.

  1. Supply If supply is low higher chances of floor price / mint >= 1.1 (Increased chance for profitable flipping)

If supply is high, lower chances of floor price / mint >= 1.1 (Decreased chance for profitiable flipping)

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<aside> <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" alt="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" width="40px" /> NFT Doctor @NFT_Doctor33: 2) Mint Price

Low mint price >> (Increased chance for profitable flipping)

High mint price >> (Decreased chance for profitiable flipping)

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<aside> <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" alt="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" width="40px" /> NFT Doctor @NFT_Doctor33: 3) Number of reactions to discord announcements

High number of reactions >> (Increased chance for profitable flipping)

Low number of reactions >> (Decreased chance for profitable flipping)

(This can be botted be careful)

</aside>

<aside> <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" alt="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" width="40px" /> NFT Doctor @NFT_Doctor33: 4) Chat movement speed in discord

Fast moving chat >> (Increased chance for profitable flipping)

Slow moving chat >> (Decreased chance for profitable flipping)

(This can be botted be careful)

</aside>

<aside> <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" alt="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" width="40px" /> NFT Doctor @NFT_Doctor33: 5) Twitter engagement

Good engagement >> (Increased chance for profitable flipping)

Bad engagement >> (Decreased chance for profitable flipping)

(This can be botted be careful)

</aside>

<aside> <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" alt="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" width="40px" /> NFT Doctor @NFT_Doctor33: 6) Mint day discussions

The project is mentioned a lot in alpha chats >> (Increased chance for profitable flipping)

The project is not mentioned in alpha chats >> (Decreased chance for profitable flipping)

(Not Bottable, safe indicator.)

</aside>

<aside> <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" alt="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" width="40px" /> NFT Doctor @NFT_Doctor33: 7) Mint speed

Being minted fast >> (Increased chance for profitable flipping)

Being minted slow >> (Decreased chance for profitable flipping)

</aside>

<aside> <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" alt="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" width="40px" /> NFT Doctor @NFT_Doctor33: 8) Supply cut during mint phase

Supply cut (Yes) >> (Increased chance for profitable flipping)

Supply cut (No) >> (Decreased chance for profitable flipping)

</aside>

<aside> <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" alt="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" width="40px" /> NFT Doctor @NFT_Doctor33: 9) Last day baseless FUD

Last day baseless FUD (Yes) >> (Increased chance for profitable flipping)

Last day baseless FUD (No) >> (Decreased chance for profitable flipping)

Yes, last day FUD is generally a good indicator of good flip bc people FUD hyped mints for engagement.

</aside>

<aside> <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" alt="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" width="40px" /> NFT Doctor @NFT_Doctor33: 10) Frozen update authority

NFTs can be listed before mint ends (No) >> (Increased chance for profitable flipping)

NFTs can be listed before mint ends (Yes) >> (Decreased chance for profitable flipping)

</aside>

<aside> <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" alt="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" width="40px" /> NFT Doctor @NFT_Doctor33: So before minting any projects I go through mentioned explanatory variables list.

If the majority of them are in the favour of a good flip I mint if not I pass.

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<aside> <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" alt="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" width="40px" /> NFT Doctor @NFT_Doctor33: Important notes to know about the multiple regression models:

  1. Not all variables are weighted equally. Having high hype (3,4,5,6) could overweight high mint price (2) which results in a good flip despite the high mint price.

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<aside> <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" alt="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" width="40px" /> NFT Doctor @NFT_Doctor33: 2) All of these variables just increase or decrease the chances of good flips. None of them alone or together will provide you information with 100% certainty.

But used right you can make well-educated guesses and win more than you lose.

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<aside> <img src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" alt="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1577711495575633920/ouxZmB5Y_400x400.jpg" width="40px" /> NFT Doctor @NFT_Doctor33: 3) None of these variables are constant their effectiveness changes over time based on the market conditions and meta.

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